bcs bowl projections
So, let’s make the highly flawed assumption that my poll is infallible and if one team is ranked higher than the other team, they will win any matchup between them.
Done laughing? Okay, under this assumption, let’s see who will play in each BCS bowl game.
National Championship Game: Alabama v. Texas
By our assumption, Alabama and Florida both win out and meet in the SEC championship game, aka the National Semifinal Game, which the Tide wins. Texas also wins out. Although they’re only #11 in my poll, they’re currently #3 in the BCS poll, and that’s what matters. There’s your #1 and #2.
Rose Bowl: Iowa v. Oregon
Iowa wins out, going 12-0. Thanks to the Big Ten’s big game egg-laying in recent years, voters keep them out of the championship game. Oregon finishes the season 11-1 after beating USC on Halloween to claim the Pac-10 championship.
Orange Bowl: Miami v. Pitt
Let’s take a look at the ACC race. The ACC Coastal is an interesting animal. Currently, UVA is sitting pretty at the top with an undefeated conference record. However, I claim they’ll only have one more win, when the Blue Devils come to town. The Techs and Miami each have one loss. Georgia Tech wins out, going 11-1. Miami wins out, also going 11-1. VT wins out, going 10-2. But all three are 7-1 in the ACC, 4-1 in their division. And they’ve got a nice little paper-rock-scissors thing going. GT beat VT who beat Miami who beat GT. I must say I got a headache reading the ACC tiebreaker rules, but my assumption would be that VT would be eliminated because of their nonconference loss, and then it goes to head-to-head. ‘Canes it is. Phew. They play somebody in the ACC championship (BC, Clemson, or Wake, who knows) and win.
Now to the Big East. Pitt and Cincinattuh meet on Dec. 5 with unblemished conference records, and Wannstache’s men pull the upset.
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. TCU
The Sugar Bowl has become the SEC Consolation Game in recent years, and as losers of the SEC Championship, that’s where the Gators will find themselves. It’s also been home to the BCS Buster the past two years. I have TCU higher than Boise St. in my rankings (#9 and #10, respectively), but the BCS has the Donks #4 and the Horned Frogs #8. After Utah and BYU go down, I think they’ll switch places in the BCS as well. Personally, I’d love to see both of them make BCS bowls, but not gonna happen.
Fiesta Bowl: USC v. Georgia Tech
This one’s a crapshoot. The Fiesta bowl usually pits a Big 12 team versus an at-large. With Texas going to the NC game, I say pick the runners up from the two best conferences not named the SEC: the Pac-10 and ACC. GT gets the nod over VT as they’ll have the better overall record, not to mention the head-to-head.
And there you have it. I’ll be amazed if I end up getting a single thing right.